定风与引向：部门网络与政策吹风的议题演进Steadying Expectations and Guiding Direction: The Thematic Evolution and Interagency Networks in China's Policy Briefings
凌佳亨,翁宗源,刘伦
摘要(Abstract)：
在不确定性加剧的背景下，政策预期沟通已成为国家治理的重要任务。政策吹风是中央政府开展政策预期沟通的核心工具，可在一定程度上缓解政策模糊性、减轻信息不对称和预期偏差，并对以“决策删简-执行协商”为特征的政策过程形成补充。基于2015—2023年国务院政策例行吹风会文本的研究表明，吹风会在中央与地方、政府与企业、政府与公民、国内与国外等核心治理关系上的关注重点，随政策周期与社会情境而变化。议题内容一方面持续聚焦市场主体、营商环境、科技创新与产业发展，另一方面动态回应阶段性治理重点，并呈现向跨领域、系统性治理议题拓展的趋势。在沟通策略上，吹风会的时序安排与媒体渠道配置呈现出明显的策略考量：沟通节奏依据议题性质在“长预热”与“快响应”之间切换，并在关键改革领域采用前置吹风以引导预期；媒体参与格局则呈现出境内媒体层级分工与境外媒体地域与功能分化的特征。参与部门形成具有“小世界”特性和高集聚性的合作网络，国家发展改革委等核心部门处于网络中心并扮演关键桥梁角色。研究刻画了政策吹风在中国政策预期沟通实践中的主要特征，为理解不确定性加剧背景下的国家治理提供了经验观察视角。
关键词(KeyWords)： 政策吹风;政策预期;预期沟通;主题分析;跨部门合作
基金项目(Foundation):
作者(Author): 凌佳亨,翁宗源,刘伦
参考文献(References)：
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- (1)乌卡时代(VUCA)是volatile(易变)、uncertain(不确定)、complex(复杂)、ambiguous(模糊)四个英文单词的首字母缩写,强调了易变性、不确定性、复杂性和模糊性交织的世界。 (2)中华人民共和国国务院新闻办公室:《国新办举行2014年国民经济社会发展等情况政策例行吹风会》,2015年1月16日,http://www.scio.gov.cn/gwyzclxcfh/cfh/2015n_13993/2015n01y16r/,2026年1月4日访问。 (3)具体细节因篇幅所限未予呈现,感兴趣的读者可与作者联系获取。 (4)例如,国务院新闻办公室在2018年就“优化营商环境”议题多次召开政策例行吹风会,包括9月27日的“优化口岸营商环境”吹风会及11月9日的“聚焦企业关切推动优化营商环境政策落实”吹风会,均涉及多个核心经济部门。 (5)例如,2017年2月7日国务院政策例行吹风会聚焦国家发展改革委、教育部等部门介绍2016年人大代表建议和政协委员提案办理情况,而同年4月18日外交部则专门就“一带一路”举行了中外媒体吹风会。 (6)例如,这与中国政府近年来发布的一系列旨在推动人工智能发展的国家级战略规划(如《新一代人工智能发展规划》)的政策导向一致。 (7)为节约篇幅,本文省略了对图4至图6的详细文字描述及其他年份的分析结果,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。 (8)部分以阶段性工作总结、近期宏观形势解读为主,未直接指向具体待发布或新近发布政策文本的吹风会,因其难以精确匹配政策发布时间点,故未纳入本次响应时间区间的量化统计范畴,以确保分析的精准性。