张迎新,周健

• 1:中国人民大学公共管理学院
• 2:中国人民大学交叉科学研究院
• 3:电子科技大学公共管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

政策扩散作为政策科学的经典议题，以往研究往往将政策采纳与否作为核心议题，实质是将政策转移简单理解为政策复制而忽视了政策再生产的多元样态。政策再生产的复杂性决定了既有政策扩散理论的套用难以充分解释其形成过程。因此，本文基于政策再生产过程与组织理论的研究进展，提炼出区域环境、组织资源、府际网络与领导特征四个理论概念，构建了“环境-组织-网络-领导”(Environment-Organization-Network-Leadership, EONL)的理论框架，以探讨政策再生产的形成过程。本文基于城市政府数据治理机构这一数字政府政策议题中的管理创新，综合应用Doc2Vec模型与定性比较分析进行实证分析。研究发现：(1)单一条件并不构成高水平政策再生产的必要条件；(2)区域环境与组织资源、府际网络与领导特征多重并发，形成5条驱动高水平政策再生产的多元化组态，分别为内部协调型、环境支持型、内外联动型、外部协调型、综合演化型，且其本质差异在于组织外部的区域环境与组织内部的晋升激励何者为主导配置；(3)条件之间的关系呈现出复杂性面貌，区域环境与领导特征相较于府际网络与组织资源更加重要，且区域环境与组织资源、府际网络与领导特征分别构成了替代关系。研究不仅有助于通过对政策再生产理论框架的完善来深化对政策动态转移的理论认知，还为地方政府促进政策的本地化调整提供了经验借鉴。

关键词(KeyWords)： 政策再生产;区域环境;组织资源;府际网络;领导特征;政府数据治理机构

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金管理科学部专项项目“公共数据开放利用与授权运营理论与制度设计”(项目批准号:72342010)的资助

作者(Author): 张迎新,周健

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• (1)2015年的沈阳市、厦门市、黄石市、广州市、成都市、保山市这6个城市不计入测度案例。 (2)经统计,截至2023年,组建政府数据治理机构的地级及以上城市有259个,但61个城市无法查到相关职责文本,这主要集中于组建方式为原有部门挂牌的城市。 (3)主要为哈尔滨工业大学停用词表、百度停用词表、四川大学机器智能实验室停用词库、中文停用词表(中国人民大学)。 (4)余弦相似度的计算基于两个向量之间的夹角,它测量这两个向量在方向上的相似程度,本文中取值范围为[0,1],表示两个向量方向相同,数值越大则相似度越大。 (5)本文以各城市政府官网为主要信息来源,使用“学习考察”与“考察学习”的关键词进行检索,经文本爬取与信息抽取后统计频数。 (6)虽然本文共搜集到了198个城市政府数据治理机构的职责文本,但2015年的6个城市是发明者,作为政策再生产比较的基准,其无法进行变量测度。而北京市、天津市、上海市、重庆市这4个直辖市则由于行政级别差异无法测量邻近竞争。因此,这10个城市不参与组态分析,实际分析样本量为188个。 (7)前者基于设置的关键定性锚点(完全隶属、完全不隶属以及交叉点)进行结构式校准,而后者则基于理论知识、案例经验与数据分布对隶属锚点进行重新定义。 (8)竞争压力与学习动力的变量构建方式使其不可避免地呈现出相对较高的“0”值,呈现出非典型的分布,这反映了多数市级政府在这两个方面的缺失或不活跃。因此,本文通过观察前因条件在案例中的分布,选择能够最大程度区分案例的数值作为完全不隶属与完全隶属的分界点。 (9)限于篇幅留存备索。 (10)由于组织与政策过程理论在多年的发展历程中已经积累了诸多的研究成果,这些研究成果可以为我们所选择的特定前因条件影响结果的方向提供间接甚至直接的支持,具体内容可以参考理论框架。此外,本文也尝试了保守的“数据驱动”策略,即假设单个前因条件出现与否均可能有助于高水平政策再生产的形成,结果表明虽然一致性与覆盖率有略微提升,但是以条件组态的简洁性损失为代价,这并不利于理论的发展。