XIE Shenghua;KANG Min;LENG Xiangming;

• 1:School of Public Administration
• 2: Central China Normal University

Abstract：

Existing research on grassroots political participation behavior in China often suffers from a synchronic perspective, lacking systematic diachronic analysis. This study addresses this gap by integrating the age-period-cohort(APC) analytical framework to examine the temporal dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of residents' grassroots political participation, specifically voting in neighborhood/village committee elections. Utilizing nine waves of the China General Social Survey(CGSS) data from 2005 to 2021 and employing Hierarchical APC-Cross-Classified Random Effects Models(HAPC-CCREM), the analysis disentangles the distinct effects of age, period, and cohort.The findings reveal a significant inverted U-shaped age effect, where participation rates increase through middle age before declining in later years, aligning with life-cycle theory. A positive period effect is observed, indicating a gradual, albeit fluctuating, upward trend in participation over time, which is consistent with institutional learning theory and reflects the evolving socio-political environment in China. Cohort analysis shows notable generational differences: those born around the establishment of the People's Republic of China exhibit higher participation rates, demonstrating a lasting political imprint, while the reform-and-opening-up cohort displays relatively lower engagement, suggesting potential shifts in participation styles among younger generations.Furthermore, significant spatial heterogeneity exists between urban and rural areas. Rural residents consistently show higher participation rates across most age groups, forming a distinct “rural participation advantage, ” likely tied to differing community structures and interest distributions. However, the overall positive period trend is primarily driven by rising participation among urban residents, whereas rural participation shows a slight decline over the studied periods. This divergence suggests that broader societal transformations, such as the weakening of traditional community bonds in rural areas, may be influencing participation patterns differently across contexts.These results underscore the importance of incorporating both temporal and spatial dimensions into the study of political participation. They validate the explanatory power of life-cycle, institutional learning, and political imprinting theories while highlighting the complex, “evolving-with-the-times” characteristic of grassroots political participation in China. The study concludes that enhancing grassroots democracy requires nuanced, multi-dimensional strategies. Recommendations include implementing age-and generation-sensitive engagement policies, strengthening institutional responsiveness to societal changes, fostering inter-generational dialogue to sustain participatory norms, and promoting integrated urban-rural development to ensure balanced and high-quality development of whole-process people's democracy at the grassroots level, ultimately contributing to the modernization of grassroots governance systems and capabilities.

Key Words： grassroots;political participation behavior;age-period-cohort analysis;grassroots governance;hierarchical APC-cross-classified random effects models

Abstract:

Keywords:

Foundation: 国家社会科学基金青年项目(项目批准号:24CGL119)的资助

Authors: XIE Shenghua;KANG Min;LENG Xiangming;

References：

• 陈鹏，臧雷振.2015.媒介与中国农民政治参与行为的关系研究——基于全国代表性数据的实证分析[J].公共管理学报，12(3):69-82,157-158.Chen P,Zang L Z.2015.The relationship between media and political participation behavior of Chinese rural residents:Evidence from Asian barometer survey data[J].Journal of Public Management,12(3):69-82,157-158.(in Chinese)
• 格林斯坦，波尔斯比.1996.政治学手册精选(下卷)[M].北京：商务印书馆.Greenstein F I,Polsby N W.1996.Handbook of political science:Selected readings (volume 2)[M].Beijing:Commercial Press.(trans.into Chinese)
• 胡溢轩.2017.“形式”抑或“实质”:中国基层政治参与的实证分析[J].探索，(3):96-104.Hu Y X.2017.“Form” or “Substance”:An empirical analysis of grassroots political participation in China[J].Probe,(3):96-104.(in Chinese)
• 李婷.2018.哪一代人更幸福?——年龄、时期和队列分析视角下中国居民主观幸福感的变迁[J].人口与经济，(1):90-102.Li T.2018.Which generation is happier?:An age-period-cohort analysis on the subjective well-being of Chinese residents[J].Population & Economics,(1):90-102.(in Chinese)
• 卢春龙，孟瑞霞.2022.把时间带回政治学研究的中心[J].甘肃行政学院学报，(2):76-87.Lu C L,Meng R X.2022.Time in political science research[J].Journal of Gansu Administration Institute,(2):76-87.(in Chinese)
• 塞缪尔·亨廷顿，琼·纳尔逊.1989.难以抉择——发展中国家的政治参与[M].汪晓寿，吴志华，项继权，译.北京：华夏出版社.Huntington S P,Nelson J M.1989.Difficult choices:Political participation in developing countries[M].Wang X S,Wu Z H,Xiang J Q,trans.Beijing:Huaxia Publishing House.(trans.into Chinese)
• 苏晶晶，彭非.2014.年龄-时期-队列模型参数估计方法最新研究进展[J].统计与决策，(23):21-26.Su J J,Peng F.2014.Recent progress in parameter estimation methods for Age-Period-Cohort models[J].Statistics & Decision,(23):21-26.(in Chinese)
• 王辉.2022.赋权与削权：乡村治理的逻辑集及组合研究——以浙江H村老年协会的治理为例[J].公共管理学报，19(3):12-23,165.Wang H.2022.Empowerment & control:Logic sets in rural governance and its mechanism of combination—Taking the governance of elderly association in H village Zhejiang Province as an example[J].Journal of Public Management,19(3):12-23,165.(in Chinese)
• 王丽萍，方然.2010.参与还是不参与：中国公民政治参与的社会心理分析——基于一项调查的考察与分析[J].政治学研究，(2):95-108.Wang L P,Fang R.2010.To participate or not to participate:A sociopsychological analysis of Chinese citizens' political participation——Based on a survey and analysis[J].Political Studies,(2):95-108.(in Chinese)
• 王明生，杨涛.2011.改革开放以来我国政治参与研究的回顾与展望[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),26(6):5-21,156.Wang M S,Yang T.2011.Retrospection and prospect of studies on political participation in China Since 1978[J].Journal of Tsinghua University (Philosophy and Social Sciences),26(6):5-21,156.(in Chinese)
• 王宗礼，韩世强.2022.深刻把握全过程人民民主的本质特征与实践要求[J].中国特色社会主义研究，(1):71-78.Wang Z L,Han S Q.2022.Deeply grasp the essential characteristics and practice requests of whole-process people's democracy[J].Studies on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics,(1):71-78.(in Chinese)
• 肖唐镖，易申波.2016.当代我国大陆公民政治参与的变迁与类型学特点——基于2002与2011年两波全国抽样调查的分析[J].政治学研究，(5):97-111,127-128.Xiao T B,Yi S B.2016.The transition and typological characteristics of political participation in contemporary China's mainland base on two waves of nation-wide sample survey:2002 and 2011[J].CASS Journal of Political Science,(5):97-111,127-128.(in Chinese)
• 熊易寒.2008.社区选举：在政治冷漠与高投票率之间[J].社会，28(3):180-204.Xiong Y H.2008.The paradox of urban community elections:Between political apathy and high turnout rates[J].Chinese Journal of Sociology,28(3):180-204.(in Chinese)
• 徐勇.1999.利益与体制：民主选举背后的变数分析——以湖北省月村村治实验为例[J].华中师范大学学报(人文社会科学版),(2):4-12,161.Xu Y.1999.Interest and the system:An analysis of factors behind democratic election[J].Journal of Central China Normal University (Humanities and Social Sciences),(2):4-12,161.(in Chinese)
• 易申波，肖唐镖.2017.衰落抑或转型：近年来我国公民政治参与的新动向——基于3波ABS调查数据的分析[J].探索，(3):82-95.Yi S B,Xiao T B.2017.Decline or transformation:New trends in Chinese citizens' political participation in recent years—Based on the analysis of three waves of ABS survey data[J].Probe,(3):82-95.(in Chinese)
• 张同龙，张林秀.2013.村委会选举中的村民投票行为、投票过程及其决定因素——基于全国5省100村2000户调查数据的实证研究[J].管理世界，(4):59-68,81.Zhang T L,Zhang L X.2013.Villagers' voting behavior,voting process,and its determinants in Village Committee Elections—An empirical study based on survey data from 2000 households in 100 villages in five provinces across China[J].Management World,(4):59-68,81.(in Chinese)
• 臧雷振，孟天广.2012.中国农村基层民主选举中经济投票行为研究[J].社会科学，(2):37-49.Zang L Z,Meng T G.2012.Economic voting and China's village voting behavior[J].Journal of Social Sciences,(2):37-49.(in Chinese)
• Blais A,Rubenson D.2013.The source of turnout decline:New values or new contexts?[J].Comparative Political Studies,46(1):95-117.
• Brown-Iannuzzi J L,Lundberg K B,McKee S.2017.The politics of socioeconomic status:How socioeconomic status may influence political attitudes and engagement[J].Current Opinion in Psychology,18:11-14.
• Dalton R J.2008.Citizenship norms and the expansion of political participation[J].Political Studies,56(1):76-98.
• Dassonneville R,Hooghe M,Vanhoutte B.2012.Age,period and cohort effects in the decline of party identification in Germany:An analysis of a two decade panel study in Germany (1992—2009)[J].German Politics,21(2):209-227.
• García-Albacete G M.2014.Political participation and age:Building an exploratory model of political participation based on life cycle,cohort and period effects[M]//García-Albacete G M.Young People's Political Participation in Western Europe:Continuity or Generational Change?Palgrave Macmillan,London:Palgrave Studies in European Political Sociology.
• He L,Wang K,Liu T L,et al.2022.Does political participation help improve the life satisfaction of urban residents:Empirical evidence from China[J].PLoS One,17(10):e0273525.
• He Z J.2023.How does perceptions of social justice affect farmers' political participation?—Evidence from China[J].PLoS One,18(12):e0295792.
• Hellevik O.2002.Age differences in value orientation—life cycle or cohort effect?[J].International Journal of Public Opinion Research,14(3):286-302.
• Inglehart R.1997.Modernization and postmodernization:Cultural,economic,and political change in 43 societies[M].Princeton:Princeton University Press.
• Jennings M K,Niemi R G.1981.Generations and politics:A panel study of young adults and their parents[M].Princeton:Princeton University Press.
• Lisi M.2022.Age,period and cohort effects in a dealigned electorate:Comparing late deciders and vote switchers[J].Swiss Political Science Review,28(4):728-749.
• Nagao H,Kennedy J J.2021.The rite to vote:Community interactions and grassroots voter participation in China[J].Journal of Chinese Political Science,26(4):613-630.
• Penker M.2024.Green momentum?An age-period-cohort analysis of support for the environmental movement in 24 countries[J].International Journal of Sociology,54(5/6),565-586.
• Putnam R D.2012.Democracies in flux:The evolution of social capital in contemporary society[M].Oxford:Oxford University Press.
• Quintelier E.2007.Differences in political participation between young and old people[J].Contemporary Politics,13(2):165-180.
• Rekker R.2024.Electoral change through generational replacement:An age-period-cohort analysis of vote choice across 21 countries between 1948 and 2021[J].Frontiers in Political Science,6:1279888.
• Scott J C.1972.Patron-client politics and political change in Southeast Asia[J].American Political Science Review,66(1):91-113.
• Smets K,Neundorf A.2014.The hierarchies of age-period-cohort research:Political context and the development of generational turnout patterns[J].Electoral Studies,33:41-51.
• Strate J M,Parrish C J,Elder C D,et al.1989.Life span civic development and voting participation[J].American Political Science Review,83(2):443-464.
• Xu Q W,Perkins D D,Chow J C C.2010.Sense of community,neighboring,and social capital as predictors of local political participation in China[J].American Journal of Community Psychology,45(3/4):259-271.
• Yang Y,Land K C.2006.A mixed models approach to the age-period-cohort analysis of repeated cross-section surveys,with an application to data on trends in verbal test scores[J].Sociological Methodology,36(1):75-97.
• Zhong Y,Chen J.2002.To vote or not to vote:An analysis of peasants' participation in Chinese village elections[J].Comparative Political Studies,35(6):686-712.